Blackhawks are paying the price for past win-now mentality
Today’s NHL playoff wins must always be paid for with tomorrow’s playoff losses.
That’s the simplest explanation for why the Chicago Blackhawks could be eliminated in the first round for the second consecutive season. They trail 3-0 going into Thursday's Game 4 against the Nashville Predators in Nashville. They lost in seven games to the St. Louis Blues last season.
Since 2010, the Blackhawks have won 67 playoff games and three Stanley Cup championships.
The Blackhawks, who finished with a Western Conference-high 109 points, are the model franchise of the salary cap era. General manager Stan Bowman has done a remarkable job keeping this team a cut above his competitors in a system that is designed to spread the talent evenly among all of the teams.
But it was inevitable that the Blackhawks would pay a price for their success, and the cost was an erosion of their depth of skill. That has become apparent against the Predators.
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When a team has sustained success, three events occur that cause problems in the future. Top players grow older. Their salaries and salary cap hit grows with their success. Finally, the team doesn’t draft high and often compounds the problem by including draft picks in trades designed to keep the team competitive.
The Blackhawks' top players have grown expensive. When the Blackhawks won the Cup in 2010, Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook had a total cap hit of about $9.2 million. That was 16.2% of the NHL’s salary cap that season. Today, those five players have a combined cap hit of about $37.5 million. That’s 51.3% of today’s $73 million cap. If you add in Hossa’s $5.275 million and Crawford’s $6 million, those seven players take up 66.7% of the team’s cap space.
The Blackhawks didn't have a first-round pick in the 2015 and 2016 drafts and they haven't drafted higher than 18th in the first round since 2008.
The Blackhawks’ core group has been so strong and Bowman has been shrewd enough in his maneuvering that the Blackhawks have managed to stay among the top teams.
But it is clear that they are weaker now. The Blackhawks seem worn down, less dangerous, not as menacing as we have seen in the past.
Bowman has been a magician with his ability to find impactful players and fit them under the cap. The 2015 signing of free agent Artemi Panarin was his best trick as Panarin's cap hit was $812,500 through this season. Panarin has scored 61 regular-season goals over his first two NHL seasons.
But it’s becoming harder to freshen up the Chicago act. Nick Schmaltz, Ryan Hartman and Tanner Kero are playing in their first playoffs. But Hossa is 38 and Keith is 33. The Blackhawks are playing with four defensemen age 31 and over. Hjalmarsson turns 30 in June.
Watching the Blackhawks surrender a two-goal lead in Game 3 against seems telling. Are they growing stale?
Maybe this Chicago group has a miracle in them, but even if they came back in the series they will face trouble ahead.
The more the Blackhawks won the more they had to pay their players. That’s not a criticism. That’s the reality of pro sports. There’s always a cost for success. The Blackhawks seem to be starting to pay their tab now.
