SPORTS

Bubble Tracker: Usual Big Ten elites Michigan State, Indiana in hot water

Shelby Mast and Scott Gleeson
USA TODAY Sports

In November, usual Big Ten kingpins Michigan State and Indiana were preseason top-12 teams in the coaches poll and projected No. 3 seeds in USA TODAY Sports' preseason bracketology.

One week away from March, both the Spartans (16-11, 8-6) and the Hoosiers (15-12, 5-9) are in jeopardy of missing out on the field of 68 — as at-large bids.

Michigan State Spartans guard Cassius Winston (5) takes a shot against Indiana Hoosiers forward Freddie McSwain (21) at Assembly Hall. Indiana defeats Michigan State 82-75.

In Indiana's case, a four-game losing streak has put it on thin ice. Non-conference wins against forecasted No. 1 seeds Kansas and North Carolina keep the Hoosiers in the at-large discussion but an RPI in the 90s is glaring, as is a loss to IPFW. For much of the season, Tom Crean's group has been somewhat schizophrenic. Now they're just consistently bad, having lost six of seven. A road loss to Iowa this week would all but eliminate the Hoosiers' at-large chances.

Michigan State is a much different story. The Spartans have fared way better in Big Ten play at two games above .500, having beaten Northwestern and Minnesota. But they're lacking the signature win — one they could've gotten at Purdue this past weekend — that would put them over the top.

Now they have a rough four-game stretch that includes two of the league's other top teams, Wisconsin and Maryland, and they'll have to play without third-leading scorer and veteran Eron Harris, who is out for the season with a knee injury. That leaves coach Tom Izzo with a ridiculously young lineup with waves of postseason pressure hanging in the balance. Not an ideal scenario whatsoever. But at least a freshmen-laden roster and injuries could explain an NCAA tournament-less season. Indiana has less room for excuses.

Unlike fellow Big Ten bubble team Michigan, which is trending upward with wins against both Indiana and Michigan State — as well as Wisconsin — it's safe to say both the Hoosiers and Spartans are in the danger zone. This week and next will be as pivotal as it gets for both squads.

BRACKETOLOGY: Full field of 68

Results/records are shown are against Division I opponents only. Breakdown data as of February 20. 

Removed from consideration in this week's tracker:   Houston, Utah

Virginia Tech (In for now)

► Profile: 18-8 (7-7) 35 RPI, 59 SoS, 293 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Duke, Clemson, Syracuse, Ole Miss, Michigan, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Miami (In for now)

► Profile: 18-8 (8-6) 45 RPI, 57 SoS, 252 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh, Stanford, Clemson
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Syracuse (In for now)

► Profile: 16-12 (8-7) 86 RPI, 53 SoS, 157 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Florida State, Virginia, Wake Forest, Monmouth, Miami, Clemson, Pittsburgh
  • The Bad: Losses vs. UConn, Saint Johns, Boston College

Clemson (In for now)

► Profile: 14-12 (4-10) 59 RPI, 18 SoS, 99 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. South Carolina, Wake Forest (twice), UNC-Wilmington, Pittsburgh, Georgia, Alabama, Georgia Tech, UNC-Wilmington
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Oklahoma

Georgia Tech (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-11 (7-7) 76 RPI, 48 SoS, 235 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. North Carolina, Florida State, VCU, Notre Dame, Clemson, Syracuse
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Ohio

Wake Forest (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-12 (6-9) 38 RPI, 15 SoS, 17 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Miami, Georgia Tech
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Pittsburgh (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-12 (4-10) 60 RPI, 11 SoS, 38 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Florida State, Virginia, Maryland, Marquette, Penn State, Syracuse
  • The Bad: Losses vs. North Carolina State, Duquesne

VCU is relatively safe to reach the NCAAs under coach Will Wade (middle).

VCU (In for now)

► Profile: 22-5 (12-2) 25 RPI, 68 SoS, 70 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Dayton, Mid Tennessee State
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Davidson, Fordham

Dayton (In for now)

► Profile: 20-5 (12-2) 27 RPI, 69 SoS, 36 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Rhode Island (twice), Vanderbilt, Alabama
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Massachusetts 

Michigan (In for now)

► Profile: 17-10 (7-7) 55 RPI, 33 SoS, 95 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. SMU, Michigan State, Illinois, Marquette, Indiana (twice), Wisconsin
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Michigan State (In for now)

► Profile: 16-11 (8-6) 43 RPI, 14 SoS, 18 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Minnesota (twice), Northwestern, Wichita State, Michigan, Ohio State
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Northeastern

Indiana (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-12 (5-9) 90 RPI, 37 SoS, 151 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kansas, North Carolina, Michigan State, Illinois,
  • The Bad: Loss vs. IPFW

Illinois (Out for now)

► Profile: 14-12 (5-9) 67 RPI, 16 SoS, 47 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. VCU, Northwestern, Ohio State, Michigan
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Penn State (Out for now)

► Profile: 14-13 (6-8) 73 RPI, 25 SoS, 35 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Maryland, Minnesota, Michigan State, Illinois (twice), Georgia Tech
  • The Bad: Losses vs. George Mason, Rutgers, Albany

Marquette Golden Eagles guard Duane Wilson (1) celebrates following a basket during the first half against the Xavier Musketeers at BMO Harris Bradley Center.

Marquette (In for now)

► Profile: 16-10 (7-7) 71 RPI, 58 SoS, 244 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Villanova, Creighton, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Georgetown, Xavier
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Saint Johns

Seton Hall (In for now)

► Profile: 16-10 (6-8) 47 RPI, 35 SoS, 159 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. South Carolina, California, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Creighton
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Saint Johns

Georgetown (Out for now)

► Profile: 14-13 (5-9) 61 RPI, 9 SoS, 23 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Butler, Oregon, Creighton, Syracuse
  • The Bad: Losses vs. No bad losses

Providence (Out for now)

► Profile: 16-11 (6-8) 66 RPI, 36 SoS, 194 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Vermont, Georgetown (twice), Marquette, Butler, Xavier
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Saint Johns, Boston College, DePaul

TCU (In for now)

► Profile: 16-10 (6-8) 58 RPI, 32 SoS, 113 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Illinois State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Kansas State (Out for now)

► Profile: 17-10 (6-8) 57 RPI, 47 SoS, 238 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Texas Tech (Out for now)

► Profile: 17-10 (5-9) 89 RPI, 88 SoS, 338 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Baylor, West Virginia, TCU, Kansas State
  • The Bad: Losses to Texas, Oklahoma

USC (In for now)

► Profile: 21-6 (8-6) 32 RPI, 74 SoS, 168 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. SMU, UCLA, Stanford
  • The Bad: No bad losses

California (In for now)

► Profile: 18-8 (9-5) 39 RPI, 43 SoS, 77 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. USC, Utah, Stanford
  • The Bad: Loss vs. San Diego State

Arkansas (In for now)

► Profile: 20-7 (9-5) 35 RPI, 61 SoS, 46 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Houston, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Texas Arlington
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Mississippi State, Missouri

Tennessee (In for now)

► Profile: 14-12 (7-7) 50 RPI, 10 SoS, 9 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kentucky, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Auburn, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Mississippi State

Vanderbilt (Out for now)

► Profile: 13-13 (6-7) 49 RPI, 3 SoS, 1 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Florida, Iowa State, Arkansas, Belmont, Auburn, South Carolina
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Missouri

Alabama (Out for now)

► Profile: 16-10 (9-5) 74 RPI, 64 SoS, 82 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Georgia
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Texas

Georgia (Out for now)

 ►Profile: 14-12 (6-8) 56 RPI, 13 SoS, 24 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Vanderbilt, Auburn, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, Tennessee
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Oakland

Ole Miss (Out for now)

► Profile: 16-11 (7-7) 70 RPI, 40 SoS, 50 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn (twice), Memphis
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Assume these teams do not win their conference tourney to secure the auto-bid.

Saint Mary’s (In for now)

► Profile: 24-3 (14-2) 16 RPI, 76 SoS, 65 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Dayton, Nevada, Stanford
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Middle Tennessee State (Out for now)

► Profile: 23-4 (14-1) 31 RPI, 122 SoS, 16 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. UNC-Wilmington, Vanderbilt, Belmont, Ole Miss
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Georgia State, Tennessee State, UTEP

Illinois State (Out for now)

► Profile: 22-5 (15-1) 33 RPI, 140 SoS, 115 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Win vs. Wichita State
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Tulsa, Murray State

Wichita State (Out for now) 

► Profile: 24-4 (15-1) 41 RPI, 155 SoS, 181 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Win vs. Illinois State
  • The Bad: No bad losses

***

Note: All RPI and statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com.

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 and has finished as one of the top 5 national bracketologists for his website, Bracket W.A.G. He’s predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.

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