NCAAB

Bracketology: Pac-12 might have only 3 NCAA teams — all Final Four contenders

Shelby Mast
Special for USA TODAY Sports

To say the Pac-12 is top-heavy this season would be an understatement. Behind projected No. 1 seed Oregon and projected No. 3 seeds UCLA and Arizona — all of them way out front in the league title race — there is an obvious lack of depth.

UCLA Bruins guard Bryce Alford (20) shoots the ball as he is defended by Arizona Wildcats guard Kadeem Allen (5) during the first half at McKale Center.

With Illinois' win over Nebraska on Sunday, that shifted the Fighting Illini in the field and bumped California out of the latest projection. Also on Sunday, USC fell to Arizona State and now close the regular season facing both Washington schools, both of which can only harm the résumé and hardly boost it.

All the sudden, the Pac-12 might be a three-bid league. Utah already played itself out of the at-large discussion and both the Bears and Trojans have been hanging around the bubble for the last month. Both these borderline teams could need a deep conference tournament run to secure an at-large invitation. The conference is certainly down from last year as a whole, with five teams ranking outside the top-100 RPI, two of which are outside the top-200 and one of which is flirting with being outside the top-300. Yikes.

But let's be careful about labeling this a bad year for the Pac-12 based on lack of NCAA tournament teams. As horrid as the bottom half of the league is, the top is as good as it gets. Oregon, paced by All-American Dillon Brooks, leapfrogged Gonzaga to take over the fourth projected No. 1 seed based on an overall solid résumé. UCLA, led by national player of the year candidate Lonzo Ball, looked the part of title contender in Saturday's payback win against Arizona. And the Wildcats have looked Final Four good themselves since the return of star Allonzo Trier.

At this point, sure, it wouldn't be a surprise to see only three Pac-12 teams in the NCAA tournament. Yet it also wouldn't be a surprise to see one, two or even three of them in Phoenix. The Pac-12 Tournament this March might just be a snapshot of what's to come in April.

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► No. 1 seeds: Kansas, Villanova, North Carolina and Oregon

► Last four in: Vanderbilt, Illinois, Wichita State, USC

► First four out: California, Georgia, Rhode Island, Clemson

Moving in:  Illinois

Moving out:  California

► Others considered for at-large bids (in no particular order): Wake Forest, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio State, Georgia Tech

► On life support: Pittsburgh, Houston, Ole Miss, TCU, Kansas State, Alabama

► No longer considered for at-large: UConn, Texas, Charleston, New Mexico, Boise State, LaSalle, Davidson, Chattanooga, Saint Bonaventure, Saint Joseph's, BYU, Oklahoma, Charleston, Nebraska, Temple, North Carolina State, Stanford, Nevada, Texas A&M, Memphis, Utah, Auburn, Texas Tech, Georgetown, Penn State

MORE COLLEGE HOOPS

March Madness: This week's conference tournaments schedule

College basketball this week: North Carolina chases No. 1 seed

UCLA, riding defense and rebounding, looks ready for March

► Multi-bid conferences: ACC (9), Big Ten (8), Big East (7), Big 12 (5), SEC (5), Pac-12 (4), A-10 (2), AAC (2), MVC (2), WCC (2).

Conference Leaders

► Or highest RPI from projected one-bid conferences - (23 total): Vermont (America East), Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun), North Dakota (Big Sky), UNC-Asheville (Big South), UC Irvine (Big West), UNC-Wilmington (CAA), Middle Tennessee State (Conference USA), Valparaiso (Horizon), Princeton (Ivy League), Monmouth (MAAC), Akron (MAC), N.C. Central (MEAC), Illinois State (Missouri Valley), Nevada (Mountain West), Mount Saint Mary's (Northeast), Belmont (Ohio Valley), Bucknell (Patriot), East Tennessee State (Southern), New Orleans (Southland), Texas Southern (SWAC), South Dakota (Summit), Texas-Arlington (Sun Belt), CSU Bakersfield (WAC).

  • Banned from participating: Hawaii, Southern Mississippi, Alcorn State, Savannah State, Northern Colorado
  • Transition Schools, ineligible for the tourney: Abilene Christian (Southland), Grand Canyon (WAC), Incarnate Word (Southland), Massachusetts-Lowell (American East)    

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Note: All RPI and statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com.

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 and has finished as one of the top 5 national bracketologists for his website, Bracket W.A.G. He’s predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.

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