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Bubble Tracker: Why Northwestern isn't as safe as you'd think

Shelby Mast and Scott Gleeson, USA TODAY Sports

This year. 

The story line is almost too perfect. The Northwestern Wildcats, on the heels of the Chicago Cubs eclipsing the biggest drought in sports history by winning a World Series, are poised to reach their first NCAA tournament in 2017. Or so it seems. Their profile (RPI of 43, non-conference strength of schedule of 167, and top wins against Dayton and Wisconsin) has led to fluctuated bracketology seeding, mostly from the No. 7 to No. 9 line, and falling to No. 9 after Wednesday's winnable loss to Illinois. 

Make no mistake, Northwestern (20-8, 9-6) is pretty well positioned as Selection Sunday nears. In fact, as of now the Wildcats are comfortably off the bubble and remain in the "probable" category they've been in most of the year for Big Ten teams likely to make the NCAAs. 

But it won't be a curse if they surprisingly are left out of the field of 68. 

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Should they lose out the rest of the regular season — meaning losses to bubble teams Indiana on Saturday and Michigan next Wednesday, then against Big Ten co-leader Purdue (March 5) — then it's absolutely feasible. That'd drop them to .500 in the Big Ten and a subpar 20-11 record, while also hurting RPI, heading into the Big Ten tournament. Yikes. It also would be the fourth loss with three of those coming against bubble foes. Suddenly, depending on how things fare at the league tourney in D.C., Northwestern's résumé would fall right in the mix of fringe teams.

Northwestern Wildcats guard Bryant McIntosh (30) celebrates with center Dererk Pardon (5) after making a three-point basket against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights during the second half at Welsh-Ryan Arena.The Northwestern Wildcats won 69-65.

That scenario features a lot of losing and is unlikely to happen with coach Chris Collins keeping his team hyper-focused to make history. But the point is it's possible. Teams this time of year that are usually safe aren't No. 9 seeds and don't need a few more wins to feel relatively safe. Similar to ex-bubble teams Iowa State and Miami, who have played themselves into the safety zone, Northwestern doesn't have opportunities to lose badly, which means a good chunk of bubble teams would have to heat up for Northwestern to be vulnerable. 

BRACKETOLOGY: Full field of 68

Results/records are shown are against Division I opponents only. Breakdown data as of February 23. 

Removed from consideration in this week's tracker:  Texas Tech, Georgetown, Penn State, Indiana

Syracuse (In for now)

► Profile: 17-12 (9-7) 78 RPI, 51 SoS, 171 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Florida State, Virginia, Wake Forest, Monmouth, Miami, Clemson, Pittsburgh, Duke
  • The Bad: Losses vs. UConn, Saint Johns, Boston College

Virginia Tech (In for now)

► Profile: 19-8 (8-7) 36 RPI, 61 SoS, 293 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Duke, Clemson (twice), Syracuse, Ole Miss, Michigan, Georgia Tech, Virginia, Pittsburgh
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Clemson (Out for now)

► Profile: 14-13 (4-11) 60 RPI, 19 SoS, 105 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. South Carolina, Wake Forest (twice), UNC-Wilmington, Pittsburgh, Georgia, Alabama, Georgia Tech, UNC-Wilmington
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Oklahoma

Georgia Tech (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-12 (7-8) 88 RPI, 52 SoS, 234 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. North Carolina, Florida State, VCU, Notre Dame, Clemson, Syracuse
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Ohio, North Carolina State

Wake Forest (Out for now)

► Profile: 16-12 (7-9) 40 RPI, 20 SoS, 18 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Miami, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Pittsburgh (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-13 (4-11) 65 RPI, 9 SoS, 42 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Florida State, Virginia, Maryland, Marquette, Penn State, Syracuse
  • The Bad: Losses vs. North Carolina State, Duquesne

Dayton (In for now)

► Profile: 21-5 (13-2) 24 RPI, 68 SoS, 37 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Rhode Island (twice), Vanderbilt, Alabama
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Massachusetts 

Michigan (In for now)

► Profile: 18-10 (8-7) 51 RPI, 41 SoS, 99 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. SMU, Michigan State, Illinois, Marquette, Indiana (twice), Wisconsin
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Michigan State (In for now)

► Profile: 16-11 (8-6) 46 RPI, 14 SoS, 20 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Minnesota (twice), Northwestern, Wichita State, Michigan, Ohio State
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Northeastern

Illinois (Out for now)

► Profile: 15-12 (6-9) 58 RPI, 10 SoS, 40 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. VCU, Northwestern (twice), Ohio State, Michigan
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Seton Hall

► Profile: 17-10 (7-8) 48 RPI, 38 SoS, 161 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. South Carolina, California, Georgetown, Marquette, Providence, Creighton, Xavier
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Saint Johns

Marquette

► Profile: 17-10 (8-7) 69 RPI, 63 SoS, 239 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Villanova, Creighton, Seton Hall, Vanderbilt, Georgia, Georgetown, Xavier
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Saint Johns

Providence

► Profile: 17-11 (7-8) 54 RPI, 33 SoS, 191 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Seton Hall, Rhode Island, Vermont, Georgetown (twice), Marquette, Butler, Xavier, Creighton
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Saint Johns, Boston College, DePaul

TCU (Out for now)

► Profile: 16-11 (6-9) 53 RPI, 27 SoS, 111 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Illinois State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Texas Tech
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Kansas State (Out for now)

► Profile: 17-11 (6-9) 62 RPI, 42 SoS, 236 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Baylor, West Virginia, Oklahoma State
  • The Bad: No bad losses

USC (In for now)

► Profile: 21-6 (8-6) 32 RPI, 71 SoS, 168 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. SMU, UCLA, Stanford
  • The Bad: No bad losses

California (In for now)

► Profile: 18-9 (9-6) 45 RPI, 34 SoS, 77 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. USC, Utah, Stanford
  • The Bad: Loss vs. San Diego State

Arkansas (In for now)

► Profile: 21-7 (10-5) 33 RPI, 59 SoS, 41 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Houston, South Carolina, Ole Miss, Texas Arlington
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Mississippi State, Missouri

Vanderbilt (In for now)

► Profile: 15-13 (8-7) 47 RPI, 3 SoS, 1 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Florida, Iowa State, Arkansas, Belmont, Auburn, South Carolina
  • The Bad:Loss vs. Missouri

Tennessee (Out for now)

► Profile: 14-13 (7-8) 64 RPI, 8 SoS, 9 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Kentucky, Kansas State, Vanderbilt, Auburn, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Mississippi State

Alabama (Out for now)

► Profile: 16-10 (9-5) 73 RPI, 65 SoS, 80 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Georgia
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Texas

Georgia (Out for now)

 ►Profile: 14-12 (6-8) 57 RPI, 15 SoS, 25 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Vanderbilt, Auburn, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech, Tennessee
  • The Bad: Loss vs. Oakland

Ole Miss (Out for now)

► Profile: 17-11 (8-7) 67 RPI, 44 SoS, 55 NonCon SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Auburn (twice), Memphis
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Assume these teams do not win their conference tourney to secure the auto-bid.

Saint Mary’s (In for now)

► Profile: 24-3 (14-2) 15 RPI, 69 SoS, 58 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. Dayton, Nevada, Stanford
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Wichita State (In for now) 

► Profile: 25-4 (16-1) 41 RPI, 154 SoS, 183 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Win vs. Illinois State
  • The Bad: No bad losses

Illinois State (Out for now)

► Profile: 23-5 (16-1) 34 RPI, 139 SoS, 125 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Win vs. Wichita State
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Tulsa, Murray State

Middle Tennessee State (Out for now)

► Profile: 23-4 (14-1) 31 RPI, 127 SoS, 16 non-conference SoS

  • The Good: Wins vs. UNC-Wilmington, Vanderbilt, Belmont, Ole Miss
  • The Bad: Losses vs. Georgia State, Tennessee State, UTEP

***

Note: All RPI and statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com.

About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 and has finished as one of the top 5 national bracketologists for his website, Bracket W.A.G. He’s predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.

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