From bubble to trouble: Three fringe teams with Final Four potential

Syracuse was a bubble team for all of February and early March heading into Selection Sunday last year. Then, after barely sneaking into the field of 68, the Orange staged an improbable Final Four run.

With one month until Selection Sunday, here's a look at three talented teams with the potential to do the same in 2017's tournament:

Iowa State Cyclones

Iowa State has fallen out of Big 12-contending status since Fred Hoiberg left for the NBA two years ago, but coach Steve Prohm has a group this year that can do some serious damage in March. The Cyclones might own the best win in the country this season, upsetting Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse and snapping the program's 54-game home winning streak on Feb. 4.

The reason they're on the bubble can be explained with their follow-up to the KU win: A two-point loss to Texas on Feb. 7 to damage their RPI (55). Two near-wins ISU surely could use right now came during the non-conference slate when it lost to Cincinnati (Dec. 1) by one point in overtime and Gonzaga (Nov. 27) by two points. That leaves a win against Miami as the best part of the team's non-conference credentials.

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Senior point guard Monte Morris is an All-American-caliber point guard with takeover abilities, averaging 16 points and 5.8 assists a game. Backcourt mate Deonte Burton was huge in the Kansas win, finishing with 29 points off seven three-pointers.

Saint Mary's Gaels

Randy Bennett's team was last year's biggest NCAA tournament snub, and thanks to a more challenging — yet still unimpressive — non-conference schedule, the Gaels (22-3 are much, much safer one month out from Selection Sunday. It also helps that Gonzaga hasn't stubbed its toe much and is the country's No. 1 team. Saint Mary's beat Gonzaga twice last year but the 'Zags' mediocrity only hurt the Gaels' overall résumé in an already weak West Coast Conference.

This year, a loss to Texas-Arlington — a projected No. 12 seed in the tournament — plays a part in keeping Saint Mary's on the bubble. The Gaels own wins against Dayton, Nevada and Stanford but none of those victories scream of notoriety. An RPI of 20 is what makes this team impossible to leave out if the season were to end today.

Should the Gaels make the cut, they have the firepower to go far. That's because they returned virtually everyone from a 29-win team last year and have a dynamic freshman center in Jock Landale (17.0 ppg 9.4 rpg) that leads to even more shots for the backcourt led by last year's leading scorer, Emmett Naar. Saint Mary's is also elite defensively, ranking second in the nation in points allowed (56.6 ppg) to opponents.

Michigan State Spartans

Never count out a Tom Izzo team. That was the lesson in 2015 when the Spartans stunningly reached the Final Four as a No. 7 seed. But that ending was offset by last year's team, as a No. 2 seed, getting shocked by Middle Tennessee State in the first round in one of Izzo's most talented groups. This year's team (15-10, 7-5) is young and the growing pains have shown all season long, but most notably in an ugly loss to Northeastern on Dec. 18 without leading scorer Miles Bridges.

Michigan State played a tough non-conference schedule (16th best in the country) but came up short in opportunities against Arizona, Kentucky, Baylor and Duke. The Spartans' best wins have been against mid-tier Big Ten teams — Northwestern, Minnesota (twice) and Michigan — and Wichita State, a team not sure to make the tournament.

Bridges (16.2 ppg, 8.1 rpg), a freshman standout who missed seven games with an ankle injury, has been forced to grow up fast, and he's shown flashes of brilliance — scoring 33 points in a Jan. 25 loss to Purdue. Senior guard Eron Harris is the main veteran presence on the roster, but otherwise Izzo has a talented team with loads of inexperience yet also with loads of potential to blossom at just the right time.

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