NBA

NBA mock draft 4.0: How massive trades impact Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball, Jayson Tatum

Adi Joseph
USA TODAY
UCLA Bruins guard Lonzo Ball (2) dribbles past the defense of Arizona Wildcats guard Parker Jackson-Cartwright (0) during the Pac-12 Conference Tournament at T-Mobile Arena.

The 2017 NBA Draft already has been turned upside down by trades. The No. 1 pick has been traded, as have a low first-rounder and a pair of second-rounders. Plus team needs already are shifting.

Expect all of that multiplied by 10 Thursday night. This should be one of the most topsy-turvy, fast-moving drafts in memory because there’s so little agreement in NBA front offices about prospects. 

Though USA TODAY Sports put in hours of talking with people around the draft and analyzing film, there’s no way to know who will pull off what trade at this point. But for now, here’s how we expect things to go.

1. Philadelphia 76ers: PG Markelle Fultz, Washington

There was only one player the 76ers would have traded up to No. 1 to get. Fultz projects to be a lead scoring guard in the mold of James Harden or Brandon Roy. He and future teammate Ben Simmons could launch a stirring competition for the Rookie of the Year Award.

2. Los Angeles Lakers: PG Lonzo Ball, UCLA

The unceremonious trade of D’Angelo Russell to the Nets in a salary cap-saving move stunned many around the NBA. It also put the writing on the wall: The Lakers were drafting the hometown kid, and the first wave of Magic Johnson’s executive career would be staked on a big pass-first point guard.

3. Boston Celtics: SF Jayson Tatum, Duke

Tatum admitted to USA TODAY Sports that his meeting with the Celtics was a bit impromptu. It came immediately after Boston had completed its trade down with the 76ers and team president Danny Ainge explained that his pick at No. 1 would still be available at No. 3. The fact that the Lakers were considering Ball, Josh Jackson and De’Aaron Fox and hadn’t worked out Tatum makes the math pretty simple here.

Duke Blue Devils forward Jayson Tatum (0) reacts after making a three point shot against the North Carolina State Wolfpack in the first half at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

4. Phoenix Suns: PG De’Aaron Fox, Kentucky

The Suns have been trying to get Fox in for a workout, but he so far has resisted. One theory: Phoenix already has two Kentucky point guards (Eric Bledsoe and Tyler Ulis, along with star shooting guard Devin Booker) on the roster, so this could be a Big Blue-based decision. But Bledsoe’s status within the team’s current rebuild seems tenuous, and the Suns (like everyone) love Fox’s passion and intelligence.

5. Sacramento Kings: SF Josh Jackson, Kansas

Fox has been the pick here for most of the draft process on many mocks, including this one. But it was hard to imagine Jackson slipping this far until recently, and a person with knowledge of the situation told USA TODAY Sports’ Sam Amick that the Kings would be thrilled to land him at No. 5. The person spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of draft information.

Kansas Jayhawks guard Josh Jackson (11) guards Michigan State Spartans guard Miles Bridges (22) during the first half in the second round of the 2017 NCAA Tournament at BOK Center.

6. Orlando Magic: PF Jonathan Isaac, Florida State

The theory that the Magic would draft a point guard at any cost disappeared when they hired Jeff Weltman and John Hammond, two of the NBA’s best and most risk-taking executives. Both are well known to love long, athletic, versatile players, and Isaac fits that bill perfectly.

7. Minnesota Timberwolves: G Frank Ntilikina, France

Ntilikina has been rising as fewer teams view him as a project. His polish, commitment to defense and rapid learning curve have turned heads. The Timberwolves should be praying that Isaac falls here, but if not, they’re stuck without an ideal fit no matter who they take. Ntilikina can play both guard positions and has increased trade value with the Knicks and Mavericks highly interested.

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8. New York Knicks: SG Malik Monk, Kentucky

Monk told The Vertical in a video interview that he would be headed to a team that wears orange. That further flamed speculation that Monk was near the top of Phil Jackson’s draft board. The Knicks are interested in Ntilikina, too, and ESPN reported they worked out Donovan Mitchell on Wednesday. A guard seems to be the clear direction, and Monk looks like the favorite with Ntilikina off the board.

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9. Dallas Mavericks: PF Lauri Markkanen, Arizona

The Mavericks have a lot of options here thanks to some roster instability. Markkanen is the most intriguing, though, because he plays like a poor man’s Dirk Nowitzki, and the 39-year-old may be entering his final NBA season. The Mavericks would love Ntilikina — a swap with the Timberwolves might make sense here, if Minnesota wants Markkanen — but also like the backcourt chemistry they stumbled into with Seth Curry and Yogi Ferrell launching 3-pointers.

10. Sacramento Kings: PG Dennis Smith Jr., North Carolina State

This couldn’t work out much better for the Kings, who could have considered Smith at No. 5 at one point. He’s talented enough to play on or off the ball and has a killer instinct, to the point that he has a reputation as headstrong. The worst scenario for the Kings, if they don’t get Fox fifth, would be that Smith and Ntilikina are already off the board here. A trade is a real possibility.

North Carolina State Wolfpack guard Dennis Smith Jr. (4) dribbles the ball against the Louisville Cardinals during the first half at KFC Yum! Center.

11. Charlotte Hornets: SG Luke Kennard, Duke

The Hornets traded Marco Belinelli as part of their deal to get Dwight Howard, which makes their team’s biggest need quite obvious: shooting. Kemba Walker is now the only player on the Hornets to make more than 35% of his 3s (minimum 100 attempts). Kennard fits the franchise’s drafting preferences as a strong college performer, and he might be the best shooter in the draft. 

12. Detroit Pistons: G Donovan Mitchell, Louisville

Mitchell has some new interest even among top-10 teams because of his toughness, athleticism and versatility. Not many guards in this class would feel comfortable playing point or the two on both sides of the ball, and Mitchell still has a lot of untapped offensive potential.

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13. Denver Nuggets: F OG Anunoby, Indiana

The Nuggets need defense and might need a forward. They’re known for their high-level European scouting, but the best Europeans left are 7-footers who probably slot better 10 spots down the board. This pick should be easy.

Indiana Hoosiers forward OG Anunoby (3) drives to the basket against Wisconsin Badgers forward Nigel Hayes (10) at Assembly Hall.

14. Miami Heat: C Zach Collins, Gonzaga

The Heat’s best player is Hassan Whiteside, a shot-blocking center, so the fit may seem weird. But Miami is known to be looking for another big man, and Collins’ shooting ability means he probably could slot into power forward when necessary. The Miami Herald reports that the Heat are definitely interested in Collins but not sure if he’ll make it to them.

15. Portland Trail Blazers: F/C John Collins, Wake Forest

The Blazers probably aren’t going to keep all three of their first-round picks. But Collins might be a keeper. He's one of the most offensively talented big men in this draft, and his lack of defensive awareness could stem as much from coaching as ability — he’s a solid-enough shot-blocker when put in position for it.

16. Chicago Bulls: SF Justin Jackson, North Carolina

Jackson makes sense for a lot of teams, especially those looking for someone ready to play now or soon. The Bulls tend to prefer proven prospects and have a massive need for wings and shooting thanks to the recent trades of Tony Snell and Doug McDermott. The threat might be the Hornets, Nuggets, Heat or Blazers taking him first.

17. Milwaukee Bucks: C Jarrett Allen, Texas

The Bucks’ front-office makeover took some surprising turns. What new general manager Jon Horst plans to do after taking over a week before the draft is up in the air. Allen would be a traditional choice. With no ideal point guard available, taking another ridiculously long, athletic big man could fit with the already existing plan in Milwaukee.

Texas Longhorns forward Jarrett Allen (31) shoots in the lane during the first half against the West Virginia Mountaineers at WVU Coliseum.

18. Indiana Pacers: F/C Harry Giles, Duke

The talk around the Pacers is that they want to find an ideal player to put next to burgeoning star Myles Turner. Whether they do that by trading Paul George or not, Giles has massive upside as a formerly presumed top pick whose history of knee surgeries will cause him to drop at least 10 spots.

19. Atlanta Hawks: C Bam Adebayo, Kentucky

The Hawks getting rid of Dwight Howard was expected when they brought in Warriors executive Travis Schlenk to run the front office. That Schlenk dumped him on the Hornets for so little was a surprise, though. Adebayo’s stock is rising because teams love his ability to switch on defense, which the Warriors have prized for years.

20. Portland Trail Blazers: C Anzejs Pasecniks, Latvia

Again, the Blazers cannot be expected to keep all three of their picks, but one solution would be to take the best draft-and-stash player in this class. Pasecniks is a known commodity who needs to add strength but has a massive frame and serious potential.

21. Oklahoma City Thunder: SG Terrance Ferguson, USA

Ferguson has the potential to become an elite 3-and-D player. On that talent alone, he’d be a lottery pick. But questions about his pro year in Australia, which he chose instead of attending Arizona, still linger: The level of play Down Under doesn’t compare to the Euroleague, while he didn’t get the exposure and playing time he would have in China.

22. Brooklyn Nets: C Justin Patton, Creighton

There are questions about Patton’s limitations, in that he might be a bit of a traditional center in a league that values specialists at the position. But the Nets are looking for talent, and Patton would have been in consideration for a top-10 pick a decade ago and also showed the early signs of having 3-point range in the future.

Creighton Bluejays center Justin Patton (23) reacts after a play against the Butler Bulldogs at CenturyLink Center Omaha.

23. Toronto Raptors: F Semi Ojeleye, SMU

The Raptors’ future is unclear with Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka hitting free agency, but Ojeleye can help them either way. His fit as a small-ball power forward who can help guard small forwards has made him a popular riser after he entered the draft process as an expected second-rounder.

24. Utah Jazz: PF T.J. Leaf, UCLA

The Jazz have been linked to power forwards for most of this process after a disappointing season from 2018 free agent Derrick Favors. It’s not precisely a need — they haven’t given up on Trey Lyles — but Leaf would be a tremendous value here. He worked out for Utah a couple weeks ago, even though he was expected to be off the board by this pick.

25. Orlando Magic: PG Jawun Evans, Oklahoma State

While Weltman and Hammond are known for targeting frontcourt upside with high picks, they also know the Magic need help at point guard. Evans is underrated a bit, a step down from the four point guards in the top-10 but still an excellent playmaker. His only issue is his height, which the Magic hardly lack as a team. 

Oklahoma State Cowboys guard Jawun Evans (1) shoots as Iowa State Cyclones guard Nazareth Mitrou-Long (15) looks on in the first half during the Big 12 Championship Tournament at Sprint Center.

26. Portland Trail Blazers: SG Josh Hart, Villanova

Hart is a ready-made contributor. He’s an incredibly smart and efficient player who brings to mind Jimmy Butler in that regard. He’s also been lavished with praise from statistical analysts.

27. Los Angeles Lakers: C Ike Anigbogu, UCLA

Anigbogu was the one UCLA player whose offensive game wasn’t fully unleashed by Ball, but that doesn’t mean it’s not worth a second try. Injured to start the year, Anigbogu only played 377 minutes in college and scored just 137 points. But he showed remarkable potential as a defensive force — both in rim protection and switching onto guards, a rare combination.

28. Los Angeles Lakers: PF D.J. Wilson, Michigan

NBA scouts hadn’t even bothered considering Wilson until December or January, and it wasn’t until his stunning run in the Big Ten and NCAA tournaments that he emerged as a potential early-entry candidate. He shoots 3s and blocks shots, and he does it all with a funky accompanying game.

Louisville Cardinals forward Jaylen Johnson (10) is defended by Michigan Wolverines forward D.J. Wilson (5) during the first half in the second round of the 2017 NCAA Tournament at Bankers Life Fieldhouse.

29. San Antonio Spurs: PF Jordan Bell, Oregon

Bell is an intense competitor who has the capacity to defend all five positions if necessary. He had a remarkable combine and surged into the first round, but he’s come down to earth a bit because his lack of offensive skills are glaring. Still, it’s scary to imagine what he’d become under Gregg Popovich’s care.

30. Utah Jazz (via Warriors): G Frank Jackson, Duke

No, not because he’s from Utah. Jackson’s Provo-area roots might make Jazz fans take to him more quickly than other prospects here, but he also really fits a team that has needed backcourt scoring since Alec Burks’ knee injury two years ago. Jackson may never be a starter, but he could be a solid sixth man.

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Adi Joseph on Twitter @AdiJoseph.