Hall of Fame case: Is Curt Schilling now his own worst enemy?
USA TODAY Sports is examining the most intriguing cases on baseball's 2017 Hall of Fame ballot ahead of the Jan. 18 election results.
Today: Curt Schilling.
Curt Schilling was one of the top starters for three World Series championship teams during a 20-year career that took some time to get untracked but featured several impressive seasons once he reached his 30s.
Long remembered for his October exploits – including an 11-2 postseason record and 2.23 ERA, plus co-MVP honors in the 2001 World Series and the bloody sock game in the 2004 ALCS – Schilling made the first of his six All-Star teams at 30 in 1997.
That set in motion an eight-year surge that saw him average a 16-9 mark with a 3.24 ERA, 228 innings pitched and 243 strikeouts for the Philadelphia Phillies, Arizona Diamondbacks and Boston Red Sox while pitching in the heart of the steroid era.
The case for
Schilling’s rare combination of power and command is reflected in a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.38 that ranks as the best of the modern era (since 1900). Among the 16 pitchers with at least 3,000 career strikeouts, he and the steroid-tainted Roger Clemens are the only ones not in the Hall.
Schilling overcame losing the better part of two seasons in the prime of his career – 1994 and ’95 – to injuries and the players’ strike, becoming a better pitcher and a workhorse who twice led the league in innings after that.
He won more than 20 games thrice in four years and finished second in the Cy Young Award voting all three times, twice behind Diamondbacks teammate Randy Johnson. Only Johnson and Nolan Ryan compiled more 300-strikeout seasons than the three Schilling put together.
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Schilling’s Hall case is also burnished by a reputation as a big-game pitcher stemming from his near-spotless postseason record and career 2.06 World Series ERA.
In 2004, at age 37, it was Schilling – even more so than future Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez – who anchored the rotation for the Red Sox club that ended the franchise’s 86-year championship drought. His seven innings of one-run ball in Game 6 of the ALCS, a 4-2 victory that tied the series 3-3 against the New York Yankees, cemented his legend in Boston. Schilling pitched with a torn ankle tendon that bled through the sock in his right foot.
The case against
Schilling was overshadowed by sure-fire Hall of Famers like Johnson and Martinez, lending credence to the notion he was less staff ace and more of an excellent No. 2.
He also comes up short on the win total with 216, a remarkably low number for such an accomplished pitcher over a 20-year career. It might be unfair, but an average of less than 11 victories a season does not conjure thoughts of a Hall of Famer, particularly considering his career ERA of 3.46 is on the high side.
And even though Schilling finished in the top four in the Cy Young voting four times, his failure to ever win pitching’s top prize takes some luster off his candidacy.
Lookalikes
Baseball-reference doesn’t do Schilling any favors by lumping him with the likes of distinguished but not Hall-worthy pitchers like Kevin Brown, Bob Welch, CC Sabathia and Tim Hudson in its Similarity Scores. Bill James’ Hall Monitor goes in the opposite direction, ranking Schilling – with 171 points – ahead of such enshrined pitchers as John Smoltz (162) and Juan Marichal (159). A score of 130 points is considered a near certainty for entry into Cooperstown.
Somewhere in between those two is Schilling’s performance in Jay Jaffe’s JAWS scoring system, which assigns him 64.5 points, or 2.4 more than the average Hall of Famer at his position.
X-factors
As a player, Schilling evoked admiration for his preparation and determination, and for the kind of off-field contributions that led to his winning the Roberto Clemente and Branch Rickey awards.
His persona in retirement, though, has earned him legions of critics, as Schilling has established a pattern of making inflammatory statements against Muslims and transgender people, typically via social media. He also expressed his hearty approval of a tweet that advocated lynching journalists.
Voters try to keep their personal feelings about a candidate – say, how he treated the news media – separate from the worthiness of the player’s case. But the vile nature of Schilling’s comments extends beyond any individual grievances and brings into question his character, which is one of the considerations in the Hall of Fame ballot.
While many voters will skip past it and judge him strictly on his baseball merits, enough of them may take issue that Schilling’s voting percentage could slip after climbing from 39.2 in 2015 to 52.3 this last year.
Consensus
Schilling not only sabotaged his broadcasting career with the way he repeatedly expressed his political views, but he continues to damage his chances of entering the Hall with offensive statements and a penchant for picking fights with journalists, the very people who decide who gets into Cooperstown. If his voting numbers dip below 50% this year, he may find it hard to reverse his candidacy’s downward momentum.
GALLERY: 2017 Hall of Fame ballot
