Five matchups to determine Cubs-Indians World Series
CLEVELAND – A lengthy World Series title drought is going to end this season for either the Chicago Cubs or the Cleveland Indians. Here are some of the major factors that will go a long way toward determining a winner.
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Cubs’ rotation vs. Indians’ bullpen
In addition to leading the majors with 103 wins, the Cubs’ 3.15 ERA was the lowest of any team. And it wasn’t particularly close. (The Washington Nationals were next at 3.51.)
“Pitching consistently gives you the best chance to win,” veteran right-hander John Lackey said. “Offenses can go up and down way faster than a consistent pitching staff. I think we were good at that, pretty good the whole season.”
Chicago’s starters were even better with a collective 2.96 ERA. Individually, Kyle Hendricks (2.13) and Jon Lester (2.44) ranked first and second overall – with Jake Arrieta (3.10) and Lackey (3.35) also among the top 25.
Rajai Davis, Indians plan to exploit Jon Lester on basepaths
On the other side, the Indians staff -- seventh in the majors with a 3.84 ERA in the regular season -- has dominated the postseason, allowing 14 earned runs in eight games (1.77).
In beating the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays in the AL playoffs, the Indians maximized the effectiveness of their three best pitchers. Ace Corey Kluber and relievers Andrew Miller and Cody Allen have thrown over half (37 2/3) of the team’s 71 postseason innings – and combined for an ERA of 0.48.
“You have to have pieces you can throw around them. There’s a lot of things that have allowed Tito (manager Terry Francona) to be able to do it,” Allen said. “Tito’s had numerous conversations with all of us about what can potentially happen, so we haven’t been caught off guard …We kinda know the game plan going in.”
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Cubs’ power vs. Indians’ speed
Hits have been scarce all around this postseason, but the Cubs have been timely, averaging 4.8 runs per game despite a .222 average and .277 on-base percentage in 10 postseason games. That's just slightly below the 5.0 they scored during the regular season.
“In the playoffs, you’ve seen a lot of home runs winning the game,” said Kris Bryant, who led the team with 39 during the regular season. “I know we’ve had a couple.”
Javier Baez hit a solo homer for the only run in the Division Series opener against San Francisco. Miguel Montero’s pinch-hit grand slam was the decisive blow in the NL Championship Series opener against the Dodgers. Addison Russell had two huge NLCS home runs.
The Indians have needed every hit they’ve gotten during the playoffs, scoring just 27 runs in winning seven of eight (3.4 per game). Shortstop Francisco Lindor is the only regular who has hit for an average above .270.
The Indians have slugged 11 home runs, but they may need to take advantage of their exceptional team speed against the Cubs pitching staff.
Cleveland led the AL in both stolen bases (134) and stolen base percentage (81%).
The matchup in Game 1 against Cubs left-hander Jon Lester will be one to watch. Lester rarely, if ever, throws over to first base with a runner on base. So look for the Indians to exploit that weakness.
“We definitely want to be smart, but yet aggressive at the same time,” said outfielder Rajai Davis, who led the AL with 43 steals. “If we can put the threat of taking the next base, of being aggressive on the bases and going first to third, that can pay huge dividends.”
Opponents stole 28 bases against Lester – third most of any pitcher. However, catchers David Ross, Willson Contreras and Miguel Montero threw out 13 runners when Lester was on the mound – the highest total for any pitcher.
“Lester’s really quick to the plate,” the Cubs’ Arrieta said. “Even though guys get really big leads, he hasn’t given up a lot of stolen bases. We’ll go over that … the stolen base threats, and we’ll do our best.”
10 players to watch in the Cubs-Indians World Series
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Cubs’ versatility vs. Indians’ X-factor
One of the strength of this year’s Cubs roster is the number of players who can play multiple positions in the field.
“I bring four (gloves) with me on the road wherever I go,” Bryant said -- two for third base, one for the outfield and one for first base.
Baez has played every infield position this season, making several highlight reel plays at second base in October.
Veteran Ben Zobrist has seen action in the infield and the outfield. And Willson Contreras has played both catcher and left field.
The Indians make more use of platoon situations with outfielders Davis and Brandon Guyer better against left-handed pitching and Tyler Naquin and Coco Crisp facing mostly right-handers.
In addition, Cleveland will have pitcher Danny Salazar on the World Series roster after he missed more than six weeks with a forearm injury.
“I think being out the postseason and being ready to pitch in a World Series, feeling ready to go is amazing,” Salazar said. “I’m trying to bring the team a little bit of extra help if they need it.”
Salazar pitched a three-inning simulated game on Sunday and came through without any complications. Although he may not be able to go more than that in a game, the Indians have already shown that they don’t need their starters to go too deep before turning things over to the bullpen.
The Cubs could also have an X-factor of their own in Kyle Schwarber, who tore ligaments in his knee in the second game of the season, but has progressed all the way back to playing games in the Arizona Fall League.
“He’s doing everything well and right,” manager Joe Maddon said Monday. “He’s given us another option to think about.”
With four of the scheduled seven games coming in an AL park, Schwarber could be used as a designated hitter and pinch-hitter in the series.
Cubs, Indians World Series droughts raise stakes
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Defense, defense, defense
The Cubs were one of the best teams in the majors by a number of defensive metrics. With +82 Defensive Runs Saved, the Cubs finished 31 ahead of the second-place Astros. They were also No. 1 by a large margin in Ultimate Zone Rating and in Defensive Wins Above Replacement.
“Our defense is really fun to watch,” outfielder Jason Heyward said. “It’s something that I appreciate as somebody who loves to play defense. These guys take a lot of pride in it and we feed off each other.”
“We have that competition too,” Baez said. “Everybody making plays all over the place has been really great for us.”
The Indians were no slouches either, ranking ninth in DRS, fourth in UZR and fifth in defensive WAR.
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Cubs’ Joe Maddon vs. Indians’ Terry Francona
One thing seems quite apparent in this matchup: It features the two best managers in the majors.
Maddon is famous for his quirks and oddball traditions, but he’s also been among the first to bring advanced statistical analysis from the computer to the dugout.
“He’s always pushed the envelope trying to do some things, whether it’s playing four outfielders against (David) Ortiz,” Francona said. “The one thing he’s always had the ability to do is keep a clubhouse together, which is saying a lot during the course of 162 games.”
Maddon is making his third World Series appearance – as a coach with the Angels in 2002 and manager of the Tampa Bay Rays in 2008. Meanwhile, Francona helped end another famous title drought in Boston as the Red Sox skipper in 2004.
“At the end of the day, it’s not about me or Tito; it’s about players,” Maddon said. “If your guys play better than their guys, you win.”
Prediction:
Cubs in 6
Gallery: World Series matchups
