AL East: Four-team shootout in stretch run

In the New York Yankees’ and Boston Red Sox’s glory days in the 2000s, the American League East was viewed as a “rugged” division. In fact, it was more often two behemoths and three punching bags.

Fast forward a decade, and the AL East is about to see a 32-game sprint to the finish that might have once seemed unfathomable: Four teams with realistic chances at three playoff berths, hopscotching the continent and locking horns with one another 39 times.

They’ll be playing for October glory, but also to postpone the inevitable: A superstar’s retirement, the free agency of two franchise players and the continued restructuring of the game’s most storied franchise.

From now until the season ends Oct. 2, some combination of the Red Sox, Yankees, Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles will play each other every night, save for one off day, as they meet each other six or seven times apiece. USA TODAY Sports breaks down the road ahead for a quartet with destiny in its hands:

Toronto Blue Jays

Currently: In first place, two games ahead of the Red Sox and four up on the Orioles.

Playoff odds (per Fangraphs): 92.4%

The rest of the schedule: 6 vs. Rays, 4 vs. Angels, 3 vs. Mariners (.460 overall winning percentage).

MLB awards watch: Kris Bryant, Jose Altuve front runners for MVP awards

Good vibes: The hot-and-cold offense broke out with 32 runs in the three-game weekend sweep of the Minnesota Twins that put Toronto a season-best 18 games over .500, and outfielders Jose Bautista and Kevin Pillar are back in the lineup. The addition of setup men Jason Grilli and Joaquin Benoit has stabilized a shaky bullpen.

Bad vibes: The Jays gave up 21 runs to the Twins, requiring comebacks from at least three runs down in two of the games. Francisco Liriano (3.97 ERA in four starts with Toronto) has failed to secure his starting spot, so it’s not clear whether the Blue Jays will go with a six-man rotation after Aaron Sanchez returns Wednesday.

Drama: Bautista (.229 average, .804 OPS) has not enjoyed the kind of season he wanted as he enters free agency, missing 46 games and now being relegated to a DH role as he works his way back from a sprained knee, although he did homer Monday night at Baltimore. Bautista, who turns 36 in October, may be approaching his final days in Toronto. Edwin Encarnacion may be playing his way out of the team’s future as well, but for a different reason, as his huge numbers (36 homers, AL-leading 106 RBI) are setting him up for a big payday as a free agent.

Forecast: The bullpen’s improvement and Sanchez’s return bode well for the Blue Jays’ chances of holding off all challengers and winning the division. Toronto’s offense has been puzzlingly inconsistent, but Josh Donaldson’s four homers in two days spanning Sunday and Monday may be a sign of big things to come for the whole lineup.

Boston Red Sox

Currently: 2 games behind the Blue Jays and two games up for the first wild card.

Playoff odds: 86%

The rest of the schedule: 6 vs. Rays, 3 vs. Athletics, 3 vs. Padres (.429 overall winning percentage).

Good vibes: Nobody can match the firepower. They’re the only club in the majors with an OPS above .800, and their average of 5.42 runs a game is at least half a run higher than any other AL team. Boston also has been getting better outings from its starters since the break (3.10 ERA in August), and All-Star Steven Wright returned to action Friday after missing three weeks with a shoulder injury.

Bad vibes: The bullpen has become a major concern, as underscored by Matt Barnes’ five-run implosion in Sunday night’s loss to the Royals. Junichi Tazawa and lefty Fernando Abad have struggled as well this month, making it harder for Boston to get the ball to closer Craig Kimbrel in save situations.

Drama: David Ortiz’s season-long farewell tour continues, and he acknowledges the duties of being baseball’s most beloved ambassador have worn him down. Ortiz is the center of attention wherever he goes, with fans and the news media wanting a piece of his time. Big Papi has handled it well and continues to lead the majors in OPS at 1.039, but it’s a lot to ask of a 40-year old to keep up that kind of production in the face of so many demands.

Forecast: Breakout seasons by Rick Porcello - who beat Tampa Bay on Monday for his 18th win - and Wright have taken some weight off David Price, who has turned things around after the break (3.19 ERA, following a 4.34 mark in the first half). With some improved work from the relief corps, the Red Sox should be able to claim a playoff spot.

Baltimore Orioles

Currently: 4 games behind Blue Jays in division, 1-game lead over Tigers for final wild card

Playoff odds: 43%

The rest of the schedule: 7 vs. Rays, 3 vs. Tigers, 3 vs. Diamondbacks (.459 winning percentage)

Good vibes: If winning is the best cologne, consider the three-run homer the aftershave. Baltimore continues pounding the baseball, with a major league-high 204 home runs. Six players have at least 19 home runs, including Mark Trumbo’s major league high 40. Third baseman Manny Machado will push Donaldson for MVP honors. The bullpen’s 78% save conversion is second to the Yankees.

Bad vibes: Kevin Gausman (3.73) and Chris Tillman (3.76) are the only pitchers with at least 10 starts with an ERA lower than 5.38. And Tillman remains on the disabled list with a shoulder injury.

Drama: Center fielder Adam Jones might be nursing a hamstring injury down the stretch. Fans have had it with Ubaldo Jimenez and his 6.62 ERA, but unless Tillman returns, options are limited. Can Wade Miley - with a 1.86 WHIP in five starts as an Oriole - be at least serviceable?

Forecast: Rotation woes make it tempting to write off Baltimore, but Buck Showalter has managed around the deficiencies brilliantly. It might get bumpy, but look for the Orioles to cling to that second wild card spot and maintain their own even-year magic with a third playoff berth in five seasons.

New York Yankees

Currently: 7 1/2 games behind Blue Jays in division, 3 1/2 behind Orioles for final wild card

Playoff odds: 6%

The rest of the schedule: 7 vs. Rays, 2 vs. Royals, 3 vs. Dodgers (.504 winning percentage)

Good vibes: Until proven otherwise, rookie catcher Gary Sanchez will match Barry Bonds’ record-setting single-season home run rate. The blend of youth and veterans has worked out perfectly. Didi Gregorious is an above-average offensive shortstop.

Bad vibes: Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman, Nathan Eovaldi and Luis Severino are among the arms traded, injured or shipped out since the season began. The schedule offers no breathers - even the Rays are 6-6 against the Yankees this year.

Drama: How will the kids respond to four-game September slate at Fenway Park? How will it go over if Mark Teixeira is deprived of at-bats during his own farewell? Whoa, did A-Rod really just tweet that he wants to return for one more series at Yankee Stadium?

Forecast: Had the Yankees pulled off a weekend sweep of Baltimore, this would look more realistic. But there’s too many teams to pass, and too many holes to play .750 ball in September. Still, the Yankees walk away with a decent consolation prize: It’s safe to trust the process again in the Bronx.

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