Why Turkey's constitutional referendum on Sunday is such a big deal

ISTANBUL — Sunday's constitutional referendum on granting broad new powers to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has deeply divided Elif Koc's family, like many other Turks. The 18-year-old manicurist said her uncle opposes giving Erdogan so much authority, but she's voting for the change.

"That can lead us to be a better country,” said first-time voter Koc.

Whether a powerful presidency will lead to a better country is in sharp dispute. Supporters of the referendum say changing Erdogan's job from a largely ceremonial post to a position more akin to the U.S. presidency will improve the economy and provide Turkey a strong leader at a time of enormous challenges. A civil war in neighboring Syria has sent 3.5 million refugees into Turkey, terrorist attacks are on the rise, and conflict is growing with minority Kurds seeking autonomy.

“The economy will be stronger, growth will accelerate, there will be new jobs, we will cut the red tape, and the new system will eradicate terrorism,” Prime Minister Banali Yildirim, who would lose his job if the referendum succeeds, told a February rally in the capital, Ankara.

Those opposed to the change fear Erdogan would undermine Turkey's democracy and secular traditions and institute a religious authoritarianism regime in this mostly Muslim nation. They point to the government crackdown following an attempted military coup last year.

“It’s paving the way for a dictatorship,” said Ismail Gundogdu, 74, a retired banker. “It’s anti-democratic.”

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Polls show a close contest with the "yes" campaign slightly ahead.

The outcome is not only vital to Turkey's future, but it also will have major ripple effects in Europe, the Middle East and dealings with the United States and NATO. The U.S. military has a strategic air base in Turkey that is used for operations throughout the Middle East, and the NATO member is a valued ally in the fight against the Islamic State and the defense of Europe. In addition, Turkey is trying to keep the tide of refugees fleeing Syria and other conflict zones from flooding Europe.

A more powerful Erdogan, who could be around at least another decade, worries European leaders who have expressed concerns about his move away from democracy. That has made the European Union less receptive to Turkey's bid to become a member. Erdogan also clashed with the Obama administration for not extraditing exiled cleric Fethullah Gulen, a political rival living in Pennsylvania who the Turkish president says was behind the July coup attempt.

If voters approve the constitutional change, Erdogan could issue sweeping decrees without legislative approval, appoint his own cabinet and two-thirds of federal judges and have the authority to declare a state of emergency and dissolve parliament. Elected as prime minister in 2002 and president in 2014, Erdogan would have a chance to stand for re-election twice and remain in power until 2029 under the changes.

Turkish pollster Murat Gezici said 18% of registered voters plan to boycott the referendum because they believe Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party will win, and that could become a self-fulfilling prophesy. “Participation is key,” Gezici said.

There are signs that the government is trying to silence open dissent. TV host Irfan Digermenci was fired for vowing on social media to vote "no," while other media personalities supporting the "yes" campaign kept their jobs. Ali Gul, a law student, was arrested on charges of insulting the president on social media after his comical video supporting a "no" vote went viral.  A TV interview with Nobel Prize-winning novelist Orhan Pamuk, who wanted to explain his reasons for voting no, was canceled.

Erdogan and his party are mounting an intensive campaign. Ads featuring his photo cover billboards and high-rise buildings. Erdogan draws large crowds, even in Diyarbakir, a region where Turkish airstrikes have killed at least 340 civilians and displaced 355,000 people in the country's southeast Kurdish region in the past two years, according to Human Rights Watch.

In Istanbul’s more secular neighborhoods, campaign ads exhorting citizens to vote "no" cover buildings. Turkish women’s rights activists, who fear a backlash against them for wearing Western clothing, have created a Women Say No group to campaign on the streets and in cafes.

Nicholas Danforth, a Turkey expert at the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington, D.C., said the country using a democratic election to install authoritarianism. “Erdogan's continued success is a frightening example of how illiberal populism can destroy democracy at the ballot box,” Danforth said.

“The best-case scenario would be a modicum of authoritarian stability,” Danforth said. “If the referendum wins narrowly amid allegations of fraud, the worst-case scenario would be mass protests met with a violent government crackdown."